Will 4/20/16 Yield the Biggest Retail Week Yet?

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Will 4/20/16 Yield the Biggest Retail Week Yet?

When our Liquor and Cannabis Board reports daily statewide cannabis sales, their reporting week ends on Mondays. From these data, we know that the 7-day period spanning Tuesday April 12 through Monday April 18 enjoyed $10,687,754.59 in state-wide total retail sales, representing a daily average of almost $1,527,000.

That’s not bad, particularly given that these totals do not include excise (or sales) taxes.

In honor of today’s special 4/20-ness, I’ve put together the following predictions relating to this week and to the growing hunger of adult Washingtonians for State-legal Cannabis.

The assumptions underlying the following predictions are as follows:
• No regulated Cannabis is sold to minors
• No regulated Cannabis is sold out-of-state
• All Cannabis produced in the regulated system, if sold, will be sold within the regulated system
• Non-users are beginning to feel less fear and more interest in the products offered by this market.
• Medical users are increasingly making the unfortunate choice between being regulated and being criminal.
• More stores (even some shake and bake supposed Priority 1’s) are opening.
• The past tells us something about the future.

In a nutshell, I believe that the week ending April 25 (next Monday) will generate in excess of $12,000,000 in pre-tax retail revenue for the first time in the history of this market. By reference, the largest retail week yet reported was the week ending April 4th (at just under $11,468,000). If true, this will correspond to a daily average for the week of almost $1,715,000.

Forecast420trend

That is a doubling of the size of the retail market in just under 10 months. It also represents an AVERAGE weekly per-store total of about $50,000 in pre-tax revenue to be expected this week (assuming we have 240 stores actively selling this week -which is the number I expect, given the numerological/dyslexic tie that 240 has to 4/20).

If we were to continue (flat) at this rate of daily sales, the next 365 days would generate over $625 MILLION dollars in taxable retail sales (and over $231 MILLION in excise tax dollars … and around $60 MILLION in sales taxes).

Of course, we won’t continue (flat) at that rate for the next 12 months. We’ll double the market again in the next 12 months (at least). Of course, that’s just an opinion (and it’s after 8am on 4/20, so take it with a grain of infused salt). For those keeping track, that begins implying something over a Billion in the not-too-distant future.

A few other sub-predictions for the week.
• for the first time, we will see two days in a week having over $2,000,000 in sales (80% probability)
• for the first time, we will see a single day with over $2,500,000 in sales (65% probability … the biggest to-date was April 1 at just under $2,360,000)
• by the end of this month, April will have seen 6 days exceeding $2 MILLION in retail sales (75% probability –through Monday, there have only been 6 such days in the history of the market and 3 of them have occurred in the first 18 days of this month.)

In summary. It’s going to be a good week for this market and for it’s retailers.

It will also be a very good week for it’s growing ranks of consumers.

It will, though, be a most special good week for the taxhungrybeastcalledOlympia in that it does not have to do as much to feed off of this market as do those risking their capital and time in order to create it.

I never thought of law-making as having such a good ROI.

Enjoy your 4/20.

1 Comment

  1. Ironically, I am writing this comment from room 420 of a hotel room in the greater Vancouver BC area.
    I did not request this room number … the fates simply ensured that it was mine for the weekend.

    4/20 saw the largest single day of Washington retail sales in the history of this market —- at $2,904,262.

    That generated a single-day excise tax payment to our beloved State Government of OVER 1 MILLION DOLLARS ($1,074,577) … another first.

    Unfortunately, three of my other predictions fell short of the level of accuracy I try to hold myself accountable to.
    We did not have 240 stores actively selling … we had 243
    We did not have 2 days that broke $2 million in retail sales — we only had one
    The week did not exceed $12,000,000 in retail sales … it generated $11,729,540 (which, by the way, represents an AVERAGE revenue, per operating retail store, of $48,269.73 …… no taxes are counted in this).

    As they say, close is only good enough in horseshoes, hand-grenades or thermonuclear devices.

    I’ll try to do better in my future predictions..

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