Market Estimates

August 8, 2017

Quicky: Average Daily Excise Tax now over $1,000,000

Over the first 7 days of August, the Retail Excise tax on recreational and medical cannabis in Washington State averaged over $1,000,000 per day. That corresponds to average statewide Retail sales just shy of $2,750,000 PER DAY … which represents a 7.1% growth vs the average day seen in July. For those with a longer outlook, August’s average daily retail sales are, thusfar, 26.6% higher than they were last August. Not bad growth for a market 5 weeks into it’s fourth year. Between state Sales and Excise taxes, the thing […]
July 20, 2017

Active Store Count & Average per-Store Cannabis Sales

I am one of those quants that is generally cautious of the tyranny of the mean. Averages are clearly useful for understanding how normative levels change (if at all) as a function of different inputs or groupings. They also, unfortunately, often hide the interesting parts of the underlying distributions of data upon which they are based. With that caveat, and with a ridiculously surprisingly small amount of associated verbiage, I would like to present to you two similar charts summarizing retail sales over the first three years of State-legal Retail […]
April 25, 2017

4/20 Washington Retail Sales – Actual Numbers

I’ve seen a number of estimates of what 4/20 would bring in Retail Cannabis sales in Washington recently and was successful in keeping my mouth (and keyboard) shut on the issue this year. After forecasting this and a number of other significant sales milestones over the past two years, I felt it would be good to take a break and see what others that purport to service the industry with data would come up with. Would the void be filled? It was, but I see discrepancies between the actual data […]
July 16, 2016

PSA5 – Know Who Your Dollars Support

Reminder to Patients:  This is a FEE-based marketplace, not a Donation-based one.  Where you spend your dollars is, I’d imagine, a very personal decision.  It is also an important one.  It is one with consequence. As of late this past week (13 days into the unified MoM (Market of the Man), approximately 1,400 Washingtonians had signed up and registered in the Patient Database Registry Self-Incrimination System.  Let’s assume they hit 1,500 sick folk by weeks’ end … that implies that 0.028% of the 5.3 million Washingtonians over the age of 21 are […]