I am one of those quants that is generally cautious of the tyranny of the mean. Averages are clearly useful for understanding how normative levels change (if at all) as a function of different inputs or groupings. They also, unfortunately, often hide the interesting parts of the underlying distributions of data upon which they are based.
With that caveat, and with a ridiculously surprisingly small amount of associated verbiage, I would like to present to you two similar charts summarizing retail sales over the first three years of State-legal Retail Cannabis sales in Washington State.
I’ve been quietly tracking this for awhile now, largely in response to a comment made by a Seattle Retailer about a year and a half ago. That comment was something to the effect that “a retail store requires annual revenue of at least $2 million in order to survive”. I thought that was a bit of an over-generalization (e.g., it is likely more expensive to run a leased store in Seattle than an operator-owned store in a rural setting), but it did pique my interest.
Each of these two charts shows both the number of Retail Access Points that were actively selling product each month and the average (pre-tax) PER-STORE sales of Cannabis, Cannabis extracts, and Cannabis-infused products that occurred each month.
The first chart shows all three years of Washington’s State-legal Cannabis market. The second chart zooms in on the most recent two years. I added the second chart in order to draw attention to how flat the AVERAGE per-store monthly revenue has been since about July of 2015 …. when the excise tax was shifted to it’s current 37% “at retail only” version. I am inferring no cause/effect relationship here.
Two charts … and no more text from me. I’d love to hear what you think of what these charts show (and imply) via comments on this post. I will try to be responsive to all comments.
Dramatic pause before we zoom into the last two years.